How it swung
Modeled from the scoreline, clock and pre-match Aura. Each goal resets the odds.
Key moments
24′⚽0–1
HD
Habib DiarraSenegal’s chances ▲ 24%
R. Lukakufor Charles De Ketelaere⇅
46′
51′⚽0–2
IS
D. Lukebakiofor Jeremy Doku⇅
56′
N. Raskinfor Kevin De Bruyne⇅
56′
D. Moreirafor Hans Vanaken⇅
63′
Brandon Mechelebooked▮
64′
66′
⇅L. Camarafor Pape Gueye
67′
▮Lamine Camarabooked
73′
⇅I. Mbayefor Iliman Ndiaye
73′
⇅P. M. Sarrfor Habib Diarra
T. Meunierfor Maxim De Cuyper⇅
78′
RL
Romelu LukakuBelgium’s chances ▲ 10%
86′⚽1–2
YT
Youri TielemansBelgium’s chances ▲ 41%
89′⚽2–2
R. Garciabooked▮
90+2′
93′
⇅M. Diouffor Ismail Jakobs
93′
⇅N. Jacksonfor S. Mane
96′
⇅B. Sapoko Ndiayefor Idrissa Gueye
A. Onanafor Leandro Trossard⇅
109′
YT
120′⚽3–2
Match stats
BelgiumSenegal
Possession
52%
48%
Shots (on target)
19 (5)
19 (5)
Expected goals (xG)
1.74
3.58
Pass accuracy
86%
84%
Belgium4-2-3-1vs4-3-3Senegal
Belgium XI €227M€201M Senegal XI
Belgium’s starting XI cost €26M more to assemble. Each chip is a player’s market value.
MD5.6Diaw
MN6.6Niakhaté
PC6.9Ciss
KD6.6Diatta
IS8.3Sarr
8.3Sarr
TC7.1Courtois
AT6.7Theate
BM6.4Mechele
TC
6.4Castagne
6.4CastagneYT8.8Tielemans
8.8Tielemans
PitchMog
8.5+ great7.0+ solid6.0+ avgunder 6★ POTM⇅ subbed off
dark chip = market value⇅ subbed off
Belgium bench
Match stats
Ball share over the 90 · Belgium 52% · Senegal 48%
BelgiumSenegal
Shots (on target)
19 (5)
19 (5)
Shots (in box)
11 (8)
10 (9)
Expected goals (xG)
1.74
3.58
Big chances
3
6
Pass accuracy
86%
84%
Corners
4
2
Fouls
22
12
Saves
3
3
xG race
Belgium1.81Senegal3.99
Totals here sum this match’s shots, so they can sit a fraction off the provider’s xG figure above.
Shot map
Belgium1.8 xG · 19 shots · 3 goals
- 9′Right foot · AssistedOn targetxG 0.06
- 18′BruyneRight foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.04
- 45′BruyneRight foot · Open playOff targetxG 0.02
- 45′CuyperLeft foot · Free kickOff targetxG 0.04
- 45′CuyperRight foot · From a cornerOn targetxG 0.01
- 57′MecheleHeader · From a throw-inOff targetxG 0.07
- 60′LukebakioLeft foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.05
- 60′TielemansRight foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.02
- 62′LukebakioLeft foot · From a throw-inOff targetxG 0.09
- 77′TheateLeft foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.02
- 78′LukebakioLeft foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.04
- 83′CastagneHeader · AssistedOff targetxG 0.07
- 84′TielemansLeft foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.03
- 86′1LukakuRight foot · AssistedGoalxG 0.16
- 89′2TielemansHeader · AssistedGoalxG 0.14
- 90′Right foot · From a cornerOff targetxG 0.01
- 104′Right foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.07
- 107′RaskinHeader · AssistedOff targetxG 0.05
- 120′3TielemansRight foot · PenaltyGoalxG 0.82
🧤 Diaw stopped 3 of 5 on target
Senegal4.0 xG · 19 shots · 2 goals
- 13′Right foot · Open playOff targetxG 0.42
- 13′Right foot · Open playOff targetxG 0.87
- 17′Right foot · Open playOn targetxG 0.05
- 25′1DiarraRight foot · Open playGoalxG 0.77
- 25′Header · AssistedOff targetxG 0.14
- 37′Right foot · AssistedOn targetxG 0.04
- 45′GueyeLeft foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.04
- 46′NdiayeLeft foot · Open playOff targetxG 0.10
- 46′GueyeRight foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.03
- 51′2Right foot · AssistedGoalxG 0.41
- 51′DiarraLeft foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.30
- 88′Right foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.06
- 90′Right foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.03
- 109′Left foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.35
- 113′Left foot · AssistedOn targetxG 0.03
- 120′Right foot · Fast breakOff targetxG 0.09
- 120′SarrRight foot · Free kickOff targetxG 0.16
- 120′SarrLeft foot · AssistedOff targetxG 0.03
- 120′Right foot · Fast breakOff targetxG 0.07
🧤 Courtois stopped 3 of 5 on target
1numbered = goal, matches the liston targetoff targetdot size = chance quality (xG)
Player ratings
How we rate
PitchMog Match Rating is our 0–10 score for how a player performed in this match. Any value we cannot back with real match data is left blank.
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YouTubeBelgium vs Senegal Highlights 🌎🏆 2026 FIFA World Cup™ | Round of 32
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